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The chemical fiber export change for the better stimulation makes up rises the quotation
Time:2010-01-19    Views:6227 

December 2009 textile and garment exports performed well, suggesting that the export situation in 2010 and further good, as part of its upstream chemical industry operating environment will subsequently turn for the better; the secondary market, the delay in moving fiber plate is expected to fill Up Quotes will continue.

Domestic exports of two-wheeled drive

Although our efforts to open up the domestic market, but China's textile and apparel greater dependence on exports, according to the first 11 months of 2009, the corresponding figures estimated that the proportion of total output value of the export industry, accounting for 25% or more.

Since the first quarter of 2009, China's export in general show a slow recovery trend. Customs and Excise Department today released December 2009 data show that in December 2009 total textile and clothing exports increased by 4.48% during the year to achieve positive growth for the first time. Segmentation point of view, the textile industry in December rose 25.11 percent, clothing was down 4.75%. 2009 trend of improvement in the second half of the industry more visible, especially the substantial growth year on year in December the textile, clothing drop significantly narrowed, the two together, an increase of 4.48%, while the cumulative year on year in November after falling 11.44%. We believe that the industry before the year after the high-low trend is obvious, which indicates that the export upturn in 2010 worth looking forward to.

We believe that the textile and garment export situation has improved, coupled with the domestic situation is good, increase of upstream raw materials, chemical fiber and so on demand. 2009 viscose fiber production in the first 11 months, an increase of 15.28 percent, an increase of 16.57% spandex. The relationship between output growth and changes in supply and demand led to changes in market prices, such as viscose staple fiber January 8, 2010 more expensive than early 2009, up 61.64%, polyester January 8, 2010 more expensive than the price rose in early 2009 35.58%.

Business situation also improved the performance of listed companies in 2009 out on the show, according to Wind data statistics, the third quarter of 2009, chemical fiber plate to achieve the net profit attributable to shareholders of 890 million yuan, while the 2008 loss of more than 1.8 billion yuan over the same period . Sub-quarter view, in 2009 Fiber gradually increase profitability, a quarterly gross profit margin was 4.6%, three quarterly rose to 11.3%.

-Than-expected industry growth is expected to

Taking into account the international market in 2010 is still in recovery, is expected to China's textile and garment export recovery is still relatively gentle process. Assumed that the annual growth to return to full-year 2008, ie, an increase of 8% -9%, compared with December 2009 single-month growth rate also increased about twice. Assumed that the proportion of domestic sales and growth rates are not changed significantly, then the pairs of chemical fiber textile and apparel goods, the demand will be greater growth. If the other conditions are unchanged, the chemical fiber production is also higher than that in 2009 the first 11 months of 14.89%, while the rayon, spandex, etc. is expected to increase even more.

From the view of chemical fiber industry segments, including viscose staple fiber recovery in the earliest and relatively high degree of recovery, due to raw material for viscose influenced by the cotton price will remain high level, so the price of staple fiber are expected to remain high and volatile in 2010, industry would be at a higher boom. Viscose Class shares of listed companies throughout the year or are already very impressive, but still due attention.

With particular attention to the spandex, which currently stocks, coupled with some recovery in the international market, taking into account the new capacity in 2010 is very limited, it is expected that the economy will have a greater degree of increase; listed companies Huafeng Spandex, Yantai Spandex cause for concern.

From the plate valuation point of view, to January 13 closing price, according to the overall law and order in the third quarter 2009 results In addition to 3 by 4 basis, the fiber plate 62 times price-earnings ratio was significantly higher than all the A shares of the valuation of 24 times the level of . However, according to Wind Info forecast 2010 earnings chemical fiber plate about 40 times, of which only 22 times the plate viscose, spandex and 32-fold increase in performance may exceed the expected background, the two sub-investment opportunities in the industry is gradually appear.

 
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